Nebraska Extension's Beef Economics team has published its annual Beef Cow Replacement Forecast for 2026-2027, which forecasts the expected value of replacement heifers for Nebraska producers. The forecasts are intended to be used as a guide in what cow replacement costs might be, given market volatility, futures expectations, costs, etc., and reflect what might happen over the life of purchased animals.
This page summarizes the 2026-2027 report. Download the full report here.
Full Report
Report summary on this page.
Nebraska Extension Beef Economics Team
- Shannon Sand, Agricultural Economics Extension Educator
- Randy Saner, Livestock Systems Extension Educator
- Brock Ortner, Livestock Systems Extension Educator
Webinar
A webinar covering the 2026-2027 replacement forecasts will be held Sept. 24 at noon CT. Register here.
Summary
Executive Summary
This report forecasts beef cow breakeven values (CBV) for the 2026-2027 production season under twelve different market, productivity, and financing scenarios. The objective is not to predict profit, but to estimate the maximum value a producer can pay for a replacement cow and reasonably expect to recover through future production and salvage value.
Key Findings
1. Production Costs Increased Again
Average annual production costs rose approximately $300 per cow compared to the previous year. Expected annual costs were:
| Cost Level | Average Cost/Head |
|---|---|
| Low Cost | $1,316.69 |
| Mid Cost | $1,562.51 |
| High Cost | $1,720.39 |
2. Lowest-Cost Operations Have the Greatest Flexibility
Across nearly all scenarios:
- Lower production costs resulted in significantly higher breakeven values.
- Lower replacement rates (14%) generally supported higher CBVs because cows remain productive longer.
High-cost operations struggled to recover replacement costs even under favorable market conditions.
3. Market Expectations Strongly Influence Cow Values
The seven price forecast series produced substantially different outcomes.
Average CBV Rankings by Price Scenario
| Scenario | Average CBV |
|---|---|
| Scenario 12 (Price 7) | $4,771.78 |
| Scenario 7 (Price 2) | $3,330.12 |
| Scenario 10 (Price 5) | $3,301.02 |
| Scenario 8 (Price 3) | $2,839.00 |
| Scenario 11 (Price 6) | $2,751.37 |
| Scenario 1 (FAPRI Baseline) | $2,417.73 |
| Scenario 9 (Price 4) | $2,369.77 |
The most optimistic market outlook (Scenario 12) generated nearly double the average CBV of the FAPRI baseline scenario.
Productivity Effects
Low Weaning Rate Scenario (88%)
Reducing weaning rate to 88% lowered average CBV to approximately $2,019/head, roughly $400/head lower than the baseline. Productivity losses reduced replacement values by about $80 per cow for every one-percentage-point reduction in weaning rate.
High Weaning Rate Scenario (98%)
Increasing weaning rate to 98% raised replacement values dramatically. CBVs increased by approximately $85 per cow for every one-percentage-point increase in weaning rate, and some low-cost operations exceeded $4,200/head in CBV.
Bottom Line: Productivity improvements create some of the strongest gains in replacement cow value.
Impact of Financing Replacement Cows
Borrowing significantly reduced replacement cow values.
| Borrowed Portion of Purchase Price | Effect |
|---|---|
| 25% Borrowed | Moderate reduction in CBV |
| 50% Borrowed | Severe reduction in CBV |
| 75% Borrowed | Many CBVs became negative |
Probability of Recovering Purchase Cost
Under the baseline FAPRI forecast:
| Scenario | Highest Probability of Repayment |
|---|---|
| No Borrowing | 36% |
| 25% Borrowed | 28% |
| 50% Borrowed | 3% |
| 75% Borrowed | 0% |
Conclusion: Heavy borrowing substantially reduces the likelihood that replacement cows will pay back their purchase costs.
Best and Worst Case Outcomes
Best Overall Scenario
Scenario 12 (Price 7)
- Average CBV: $4,771.78/head
- Maximum CBV: $6,594.20/head
- Repayment probability as high as 75%
Worst Overall Scenario
Scenario 6 (75% Borrowed Money)
- Several sub-scenarios produced negative CBVs
- Lowest value: -$1,108.71/head
- Repayment probability: 0% across every sub-scenario
Primary Management Implications
This forecast suggests producers should focus on four key drivers of replacement cow value:
- Control production costs
- Lower-cost operations consistently support higher replacement values.
- Improve reproductive efficiency
- Higher weaning rates substantially increase cow values.
- Maintain productive cow longevity
- Longer productive lives generally improve cow value when future margins remain positive.
- Avoid excessive borrowing
- Financing replacement purchases can quickly eliminate expected returns.
Overall Takeaway
For 2026-2027, replacement cow values remain highly sensitive to future cattle prices, production costs, productivity, and financing decisions. Under baseline assumptions, average breakeven values range around $2,400/head, but favorable market and productivity conditions can push values well above $4,700/head, while heavy borrowing and poor productivity can make replacement purchases financially unattractive. Producers should match the scenario that most closely reflects their own operation before making replacement decisions.