Highlights
- Nebraska net farm income is projected to increase 12% in 2026, reaching a record $9.96 billion.
- Production expenses are also projected to reach a record high, keeping margins tight for many producers despite the strong aggregate income outlook.
- The projected increase is driven by higher government payments, continued strength in livestock markets and improved crop receipts.
- Government payments in Nebraska are projected to rise 71% to $2.97 billion, largely from commodity program payments and ad hoc assistance.
- Corn receipts are projected to increase 5% to $7.86 billion, supported by higher prices and inventory sales from a record 2025 crop.
- Livestock receipts are projected to increase 3%, with cattle receipts expected to reach $21.52 billion.
Nebraska net farm income is projected to increase 12% in 2026, supported by higher government payments and continued strength in the livestock sector, though record production expenses are expected to keep margins tight for many producers, according to projections from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the University of Missouri.
The projected $1.10 billion increase in net farm income over 2025, to a record $9.96 billion in 2026, comes as production expenses are also expected to increase 3%, to a record $30.37 billion, continuing pressure on profitability for many operations, according to the Spring 2026 Farm Income Outlook for Nebraska. The report is a collaboration between the Center for Agricultural Profitability at Nebraska and the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center at Missouri.
Nebraska’s projected increase contrasts with the national outlook, with projections showing U.S. net farm income holding relatively steady or declining slightly in 2026. The report attributes Nebraska’s improved outlook to strong livestock receipts and the outsized impact of government payments in the state.
Government payments in Nebraska are projected to increase by $1.24 billion, or 71%, to $2.97 billion in 2026. The increase is expected to come from higher Title I commodity program payments under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and ad hoc assistance.
The projected income reflects important support for the state’s farm economy but may not tell the full story of producer profitability, according to Brad Lubben, agricultural policy specialist at Nebraska.
“Strong cattle prices and higher government payments are helping push Nebraska’s projected farm income to a record level in 2026,” Lubben said. “At the same time, production expenses are also projected to reach a record high. That means many producers may still be working with tight margins, even in a year when the aggregate income number looks very strong.”
Total livestock receipts in Nebraska are projected to increase by $708 million, or 3%, to $23.55 billion in 2026. Cattle receipts, which account for 91% of Nebraska livestock receipts, are projected to increase by $1.09 billion, or 5%, to $21.52 billion. That’s due to continued high cattle prices driven by tight supplies and stable marketings of heavier cattle, according to the report.
After three consecutive years of decline, crop receipts are projected to increase by $517 million, or 4%, to $12.01 billion. Corn receipts are projected to increase by $374 million, or 5%, to $7.86 billion, supported by higher prices and inventory sales from a record 2025 crop. Soybean receipts are projected to increase by $116 million, or 4%, to $3.08 billion.
“The crop side of the outlook is important because it marks a positive change from the past few years,” Lubben said. “That does not mean margins suddenly become easy, especially with fuel, fertilizer and other costs still elevated, but it does point to some improvement in the revenue picture for crop producers.”
The report indicates key drivers of the projected $829 million in production expenses are higher purchased livestock expenses, fuel costs and fertilizer costs. Purchased livestock expenses are projected at $10.55 billion, up 5% from 2025, while fuel and oil expenses are projected to increase 26% to $903 million. Fertilizer expenses are projected to increase 4% to $2.25 billion.
Looking ahead, the report projects Nebraska net farm income to decrease by $1.22 billion, or 12%, to $8.74 billion in 2027. That’s primarily driven by a projected $1.32 billion reduction in government payments, assuming a substantial drop in supplemental and ad hoc program payments.
“The information in the Farm Income Outlook is intended to help policymakers, industry analysts and agricultural practitioners understand the expected profitability of the state agricultural sector and the factors driving it,” said Alejandro Plastina, director of the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center at Missouri. “For 2026, the Nebraska outlook points to strong aggregate income, but also continued exposure to high costs, policy uncertainty and changing market conditions.”
The report notes that its projections do not account for all market uncertainty and that small changes in cash receipts, production expenses or unannounced government assistance can substantially change the outlook for net farm income.
The full report is available on the Center for Agricultural Profitability’s website.
