Policy Gains but Uncertainty Looms in 2026

by Brad Lubben

December 8, 2025

Photo of a snow-covered grain bin cluster.
Farmers enter 2026 with a stronger safety net from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but major uncertainty remains across trade, biofuels, regulations, and the unfinished farm bill. Brad Lubben outlines the gains and the risks shaping the year ahead.
Photo: Real Ag Stock

At a Glance

  • OBBBA boosts commodity and crop insurance support through 2031 and extends key tax provisions.
  • Congress extended the remaining farm bill only through Sept. 2026, leaving long-term legislation unresolved.
  • Trade tensions, tariffs and unclear enforcement of new deals continue to pressure ag markets.
  • Biofuels policy remains unsettled, with stalled E15 legislation and shifting RFS and state-level rules.
  • Regulatory uncertainty persists around WOTUS, biotech labeling, labor and immigration, and other federal and state actions.

This “Policy Report” column was first published by Nebraska Farmer on Dec. 6, 2025, and is excerpted here with permission.

As farmers and ranchers consider production and management decisions for the year ahead, they can bank on some help from farm legislation passed in 2025. However, there are many policy issues that remain, and there is a great deal of uncertainty for producers to manage in 2026.

The primary farm policy development in 2025 was the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July. The bill included increased support for commodity programs and crop insurance programs, providing increased farm income safety net protection through the 2031 crop year. 

The bill also included language to extend funding support for conservation and made reforms and cuts to food assistance programs. Commodity programs, crop insurance, conservation and food assistance are the four largest components of traditional farm programs, and getting something passed in 2025 was a major accomplishment after a lack of progress on a farm bill in 2023 and 2024.

The bill also included language on tax policy, energy and climate policy that will affect agricultural producers. Several tax provisions from 2017 that were set to expire at the end of 2025 were reformed or extended, providing continuing tax relief for individuals, ag producers, business owners and estates. 

Several climate and energy provisions were rolled back, as well, although a reduced renewable energy tax credit remains to 

No Farm Bill

While the One Big Beautiful Bill Act settled several farm bill issues, the rest of the farm bill remains a question. After no progress to reauthorize the rest of the bill (aka the “skinny farm bill”) in 2025, Congress included a one-year extension of remaining legislation through September 2026 in the continuing resolution passed in November. 

That extended authority for programs such as the Conservation Reserve Program and the broad portfolio of discretionary programs from research to rural development, specialty crops and other titles, but only for another year. 

Come September, everyone will be looking to see if Congress can actually pass comprehensive farm bill legislation, or if they are pushed again to continue a pattern of extending programs indefinitely — one year at a time.

Beyond the two-step farm bill shuffle, the rest of the policy outlook brings more questions than answers.

Trade policy has been chaotic throughout 2025, with tariffs, retaliatory tariffs and reciprocal tariffs all making headlines and creating conflicts that substantially harmed U.S. ag export opportunities and, in turn, market prices. 

There were also numerous announcements of trade deals, promising substantial relief from the ongoing conflict. The deals do not promise a complete repeal of tariffs enacted in 2025, nor a clear mechanism for actually enforcing commitments made in the deals, but they are a positive development to build on for 2026. 

In the meantime, trade assistance from USDA may provide some financial relief for ag producers impacted by trade losses, although the issues of if, when and how much remained a question as of late November.

Biofuels are another policy area of uncertainty for the year ahead. Corn and ethanol producers have been working tirelessly to push for year-round E15 legislation to remove seasonal restrictions that limit its marketability absent repeated waivers from EPA. 

California’s decision to become the 50th state to approve E15 usage, in general, also expands the nationwide marketability, although new opposition from the petroleum industry and the lack of momentum on major legislation like a farm bill limits the opportunity to get E15 legislation across the finish line.

Soybean and other oilseed producers are also banking on the potential demand growth from increased biodiesel or renewable diesel production. Beyond the federal renewable fuels standard mandates, renewable or low-carbon fuel mandates in various states or even foreign markets like Canada could drive growth. 

Continue reading full column via Nebraska Farmer...

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