At a Glance
- Net farm income in Nebraska is projected to jump to over $8 billion in 2025
- Crop receipts are expected to continue dropping
- Government payments are forecast at about $2.2 billion
- Production expenses are climbing to projected record highs
Listen: Nebraska FARMcast
Nebraska’s net farm income is projected to rise sharply in 2025, but the gains are driven mostly by livestock and government payments while crop receipts continue to fall. In this episode, Brad Lubben breaks down the latest Nebraska Farm Income Outlook, the mixed signals behind the numbers, and what producers should watch heading into 2026. Find Nebraska FARMcast on your favorite platform here.
This "Policy Report" column was first published by Nebraska Farmer on Nov. 3, 2025, and is excerpted here with permission. The Fall 2025 Farm Income Outlook for Nebraska if available here.
The outlook for farm income in Nebraska remains mixed at the end of 2025. The farm income forecast for the ag sector looks to be up relative to 2024, but not as much as projected back in the spring.
Dramatic differences between crop and livestock prospects and heightened uncertainty over market, trade and policy developments drive the outlook and raise questions for the coming year.
The Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center at the University of Missouri collaborate to publish farm income projections for Nebraska twice a year.
The most recent projections released in early November put Nebraska farm income for 2025 at $8.4 billion. That is up substantially from the estimated $5.9 billion net farm income in 2024, but down from what would have been a record $9.4 billion projected back in the spring.
Results may vary
The aggregate projections for strong Nebraska farm income in 2025 hide the contrasting outlook for different ag sectors in the state.
In the spring, the situation was described as a tale of two farms, or more specifically a farm and a ranch, as crop prospects and livestock (primarily cattle) prospects were moving in different directions. Those trends became even more pronounced during the year, with cattle fundamentally carrying farm income prospects for the state along with increased government payments.
Crop receipts in Nebraska have declined 30% since the record levels of 2022, falling from $16 billion to a projected $11.4 billion for 2025. Corn and soybeans make up about 90% of the total crop receipts in the state, so the decline is concentrated in the two primary crops, although other crops have struggled as well.
In the meantime, livestock receipts have grown more than 40% since 2022 and have more than doubled since 2020. Livestock receipts in Nebraska amounted to $11 billion in 2020 and $16 billion in 2022 before rocketing to $23.3 billion projected for 2025. Cattle and calves make up almost 90% of livestock receipts in the state, as well, and have outperformed the rest of the livestock sector.
Beyond crop and livestock receipts, the primary contributor to farm income in the state for 2025 is government payments. Government payments are projected at $2.2 billion for Nebraska in 2025, up $1.7 billion over 2024 as ad hoc government assistance signed into law in late 2024 mostly rolled out to producers in 2025.
The projections are based on Nebraska’s share of assistance payments to date adjusted to the total expected payments, although some of the total assistance is projected to be delayed into 2026 given ongoing sign-up and government shutdown delays.
Of note, the projected government payments do not presume any potential but as of yet unannounced support. That includes potential trade assistance that has been widely anticipated but not officially announced as of the time of these projections.
How about expenses?
On the other side of the ledger, higher production costs continue to challenge agricultural producers. Total production costs are projected to be $1.7 billion higher in 2025 compared with 2024, reaching a record of $30.4 billion for the year.
The cost increase year over year is actually concentrated in purchased seed, feed and livestock. The same cattle price rally that drove cattle receipts higher also drove cattle purchases higher.
In total, livestock purchases for the year are projected to increase by nearly $2.2 billion, while lower grain prices mean feed purchases are projected to be more than $300 million lower. Other production costs in aggregate were generally steady, although they remain high by historical comparison.
In net, the further increase in livestock receipts and the increase in government payments more than offset the continued decline in crop receipts and the increased production expenses to drive Nebraska net farm income nearly $2.5 billion higher for 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, the projections remain relatively strong, but they are filled with uncertainty about market, trade and policy issues ahead.
Continue to full column on Nebraska Farmer's website...
