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This article was first published by Nebraska Farmer on March 12, 2024, and is excerpted here with permission.
Several U.S. government agencies released some important numbers for agriculture in February. Census of Agriculture numbers, farm income estimates and farm bill budget estimates all help paint a picture of agriculture nationwide, as well as current economic conditions and policy challenges ahead.
USDA released results of the 2022 Census of Agriculture. The once-every-five-years census provides a snapshot of farm numbers, structure, production, economics and demographics.
The big headline nationally this time was a drop in the number of farms below 2 million nationwide, from 2.04 million in the 2017 Census of Agriculture to 1.9 million in the latest census. Nebraska fared similarly, with a drop in farm numbers from 46,000 in 2017 to 44,000 in 2022.
Loss of midsized farms
The drop in farm numbers continues the long-running trend of consolidation in agriculture, particularly in the shrinking number of midsized operations.
The decline in farm numbers provided a backdrop for calls to increase support for small and midsized farms and ranches during the USDA Ag Forum in the week following the release, although there are numerous issues and economic trends behind the numbers that don’t lend themselves to a specific policy prescription.
And agriculture is measured by more than farm numbers, as there are multiple producers on many farms — with a total of 3.3 million producers reported nationwide in 2022, as well as substantial growth in the value of agricultural output, from less than $400 billion in previous census years to more than $540 billion in 2022.
The statistics tell a story of an agricultural sector that nationally continues to produce more total production, even as it does so with fewer but larger farms over time.
Income estimates
In the week before the census data was released, USDA released updated farm income estimates, including its first projections for 2024. The numbers point to a continued and sharp decline from the record farm income reported in 2022.
After reaching an estimated $186 billion net farm income nationally in 2022, projections fell by $30 billion to $156 billion in 2023, a decline of more than 15%. But in reality, it is still the second-highest farm income on record.
The first projections for 2024, however, suggest the sharp decline is continuing, with nearly a 25% drop year over year to only $116 billion, although that number fares favorably to farm income levels over the previous decade.