Real Ag Stock
This Policy Report column was first published by Nebraska Farmer on Nov. 8, 2024, and is excerpted here by permission.
Nebraska farm income prospects in 2024 look to drop sharply from 2023, with further declines projected in 2025. It’s not unexpected. Lower commodity prices for most ag commodities coupled with high production costs are putting pressure on operating margins and the financial outlook for agriculture. Although the outlook and sentiment may be lower, the drop comes from record farm income in Nebraska in 2023, and current projections still are strong compared with long-run averages for the state.
The forecasts come from a collaboration of the Center for Agricultural Profitability (CAP) at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the Rural and Farm Finance (RaFF) Policy Analysis Center at the University of Missouri.
The latest forecast released in October projects farm income for Nebraska in 2024 at $7.7 billion, down from the record level of $9.3 billion estimated for 2023, but still substantially above the average of the last 10 years of $5.3 billion in nominal terms, or $6.2 billion in real 2024 dollars. Early projections for 2025 point to continued downward pressure on net farm income with a more modest drop to $7.4 billion. The numbers are based on USDA Economic Research Service data for Nebraska through 2023 and national projections for 2024, as well as projections and modeling by RaFF and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), also at UM.
While the farm income prospects show a Nebraska farm economy that is still strong despite current headwinds, some analysis by sector helps identify current strengths plus challenges going forward.
Read the full column via Nebraska Farmer ...
Related
Article and Report: Nebraska Farm Income Projected to Decline in 2024
Webinar recording: Nebraska and U.S. Farm Income Update and Outlook (Oct. 31, 2024)